For Buyers:
Supply continues to drop as the market heats up with the seasonal rush of Buyers.  Typically we would see supply rising at this time of year as January is a strong month for new listings to hit the market.  However this year new listings year-to-date are down 17% from last year and January 2020 had the lowest number of new listings recorded going all the way back to 2001.  Combine this with a 21% increase in sales volume and the 4th highest January recorded for MLS sales, and it’s no surprise that supply is plummeting.  
While supply is down in all price points, it’s felt the most between $200K-$250K. Supply in this price range is nearly 60% lower than this time last year and a quarter of sales in the last 3 months have recorded over asking price. 

Seller-paid closing cost concessions are also down.  Nearly 22% of all sales in the 1st Quarter to date have included some form of seller-paid or assisted closing costs.  That’s the lowest percentage recorded in nearly 5 years.

For Sellers:
The luxury market continues to go gangbusters in 2020.  Sales over $1 Million in 2019 outperformed 2018 by 10%, which makes it the #1 year for in Greater Phoenix in this price range.  January closings were up 52% in this price and listings under contract are up 43%.  

With all this demand, one would think price appreciation would be rising significantly however that hasn’t happened yet. The average sales price per square foot between $1M-$2M has only appreciated 1% while those between $2M-$3M have appreciated 0.2% and those over $3M have increased 6%.  The current appreciation rate per square foot is between 8-9% for Greater Phoenix as a whole.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2020 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

For Buyers:
The urgency for buyers cannot be stressed enough; real estate prices are not projected to decline in the Greater Phoenix area in 2020.  There is not one measure from any angle that supports that theory.  Not only will they not decline, they will not stop rising this year at the current levels of supply and demand.

  
On January 9th, active supply was counted at just over 12,000 listings for all of Greater Phoenix.  This is down 32% from this time last year and excruciatingly low.  To put it in perspective, a “normal” level of inventory should be at least 28,000 - 30,000 active listings in the MLS for a metropolis the size of Maricopa and Pinal County.  The last time inventory was recorded this low was in 2005 at 9,000 listings with a population of 3.8M.  Now Greater Phoenix has 4.8M people with less than 1% of existing housing available for sale.  With monthly sales up 17% over last year, fueled by population growth, job growth, income growth and low interest rates in the area, sellers have few reasons to sell below market value.  It’s not logical to expect prices to soften in this environment.

Buyers who have been waiting for sales prices to decline before they purchase have nearly missed the boat.  This is because while they were watching prices rise, the payments for those same homes declined for a year with declining mortgage rates.  However, when mortgage rates stabilized 6 months ago, hovering around an average of 3.75%, payments started to creep up again.  

In short, if someone wants to purchase a home and they have the means, then they should lock into one.  They should expect competing offers, expect to lose some opportunities, and expect to do some upgrades.  They should also expect to live in their new home for at least 5 years to build up enough equity to mitigate the risk of ups and downs in the future.

For Sellers:
This is an exciting time for those who need to sell.  Anyone who owns property has probably been contacted multiple times by multiple means throughout the year by people wanting to buy their home.  While sellers are under much less pressure to perform repairs and upgrades in order to sell their home, it doesn’t mean that they will sell it as quickly or for as much as those that are move-in ready.  But, it will sell in this market.  Those who are considering selling to an internet investor buyer (aka iBuyers who offer some up-front certainty and convenience in the selling process), should know that they still have negotiating power in the transaction and have the option to be represented by a Realtor if they choose.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2020 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

In follow up to the article I wrote last month regarding the initial steps to purchasing a home, I thought I would write one about if you’re thinking about selling your home.   This won’t be the actual process of selling, but a discussion of the thought process and steps you can take in advance of actually putting your home on the market.

First, start by working backwards.   This includes 2 things, where you going to live next, and when do you want to move into your new home.   This is important, because it will provide less chance of having to scramble to find a home should your current home sell very quickly.

 If you’re not considering to purchase a home after moving from your current home, this will make it much easier on the timeframe, depending on what you’ll be exactly looking to move into.   However, if you are considering purchasing a new home once your current home sells, then you’ll most likely be looking at a “contingency purchase”.   You can see my blog for a good article in how this process works.  Generally speaking in the early process, you’ll just want to know approximately where you want to move, your rough budget and available inventory with those parameters to see if homes you might like are most likely to be on the market when its time for you to start shopping.

If you are planning to purchase a home after selling your current home, you should check into financing, if needed as soon as possible.   It's important to know that you won’t have any problems with obtaining a mortgage on the future purchase, since you might not be able to stop the sell of your current home without breaching the contract with your buyer.   Even if you aren’t going to be purchasing for 6-9 months away, contact the lender to see what you can do to either improve your credit score, establish a down payment goal etc..

As far as timeframe is concerned, a fairly good rule of thumb to follow is:
1-2 weeks to prepare to go on market
60 days on market before accepting a contract (this number can widely vary depending on market for your home - this is the current Maricopa County average)
30-40 days to close the transaction after offer acceptance

Based on the above timeframe, it takes about 3-5 months from start to finish once you start the selling process.   Keep in mind, timeframes could vary depending on market style for your home, if the buyer is paying cash or financing, and how inventory compares to demand.

While considering all the above, you’ll want to also be considering what Realtor you will use to help with the process - obviously I hope that its me!  Items to consider would be work experience, location in which they are familiar selling, what resources they’ll use to market the property in addition to their opinion of value and marketing timeframe.

Fannie Mae boosts 2020 housing forecast 'significantly'

Strong reads on the economy have researchers at mortgage giant Fannie Mae revising their 2020 housing forecast much higher.

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group predicts builders will expand production more than previously expected, due to a strong labor market and robust consumer spending. Low mortgage rates will also help.

After increasing just over 1% annually this year, growth in single-family housing starts will accelerate to 10% during 2020 and top 1 million new homes in 2021, the group predicts. That would mark a post-recession high but is still far below the annual peak of about 1.7 million single-family starts in 2005 and the 1.2 million annual pace experienced in the late ’90s.

Single-family housing starts have been improving steadily since May, and building permits, an indicator of future construction, are also trending higher.

“It will likely take several years, even at a more robust pace, for new construction to address the existing pent-up demand for additional housing, as suggested by a still-increasing share of 25- to 34 year-olds living at home with their parents,” according to the report.

The shortage of existing homes for sale has pushed more potential buyers to the new-build market. Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home were up 27% annually in November, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Homebuilder sentiment jumped to the highest level in 20 years in December, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

“We now expect single-family housing starts and sales of new homes to increase substantially, aided by a large uptick in new construction as builders work to replenish inventories drawn down by the recent surge in new home sales activity,” said Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan.

The increase in construction, however, is unlikely to ease the overall housing shortage. Researchers at Fannie Mae are predicting a modest decline in existing home sales through the third quarter of 2020, due to the shortage of listings.

Overall housing demand is incredibly high, especially at the lower end of the market, where builders are least active. Prices are rising fastest on the low end, sidelining some first-time buyers.

“This stronger price appreciation is also having the unfortunate effect of partially offsetting savings to potential homebuyers from lower mortgage rates,” Duncan said.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is hovering just below 4%, a full percentage point lower than where it was a year ago. Low rates are boosting already strong demographic demand drivers in the market. Millennials, who delayed buying homes because of the recession, are now flooding into new and existing homes.

“Housing appears poised to take a leading role in real GDP growth over the forecast horizon for the first time in years, further bolstering our modest-but-solid growth forecasts through 2021,” said Duncan.

19% of Homes Sold Over Asking Price
24% of Sellers Agreed to Closing Cost Assistance

For Buyers:
Supply shortages created an environment of multiple offers and listings sold over asking price last month.  This is especially evident among listings between $125K-$250K where 26% sold over asking price in November compared to the overall percentage of 19% in Greater Phoenix.  In a normal market, we would expect 10-15% of listings to be sold over asking price.  

That statistic may sound hopeless to a buyer who may not have the means or stomach to pay over asking price.  However, 24% of sellers agreed to pay some form of closing cost assistance to buyers in November as well.  This measure increases to 32.5% on sales between $125K-$250K, the primary price point for first-time home buyers.  

The West Valley has the largest share of homes listed between $125K-$250K at 46%.  Pinal County has 31%, the Northeast Valley has 12% and the Southeast Valley has just 10%.  Given this information, it’s not surprising that the West Valley has both a large share of transactions involving seller-paid closing costs combined with a higher-than-average percentage of homes sold over asking price.  Pinal County, on the other hand, has a large percentage of seller-paid closing costs, but a lower-than-average percentage of homes sold over list price.  

For Sellers:
More expensive areas with average sale prices over $500K have significantly fewer sales involving seller-paid closing costs (as would be expected) and a much lower-than-average percentage of homes sold over asking price, but things have been exciting for this market so far this year.  Sales over $500K are up over 16.5% year-to-date over last year, but most impressive is the 21% increase in sales over $2M!  Typically the second half of the year is flat for luxury sales in this range, but this year contracts in escrow have soared 42% over 2018’s level in the last 3 months. 

Also impressive is a 24% gain in sales between $500K-$600K, which was helped by an increase in the FHFA loan limit to $484,350 last year.  In 2020, that limit is set to rise again to $510,400.  This means it may get a little easier for buyers to qualify for more expensive homes and that’s good news for sellers.  

Sellers in the mid $300K price range are getting a boost too.  FHA is raising their loan limit in 2020 from $314,827 to $331,760.  FHA financing is an option for buyers who may have less-than-favorable credit and lower down payments.  This is good news for both buyers who can’t move up in price due to the existing limit and sellers who are just out of reach for these buyers.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2019 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Are you ready to buy a home?

Question: I am tired of paying rent and thinking about buying a home, but I'm worried about the added cost and responsibility. How do I know if I am ready?—Kate

The transition from renter to homebuyer is a big one. 

Owning your own home gives you assurance that your monthly housing costs will never go up, (assuming you get a fixed-rate mortgage). Landlords can jack up your rent when you are least expecting it. 

But home ownership also comes with added responsibility. When something breaks in your rental unit, it's a quick call to the landlord to get it fixed. Homeowners are on the hook for both making and financing any repairs. 

It's a big financial leap to becoming a homeowner. Experts recommend asking yourself these questions before you start out house hunt: 

Do you know how much you can afford? 

Take the time to calculate how much home you can afford to buy. 

This isn't the time to ballpark numbers. Overcommitting to a mortgage payment can leave you house poor, meaning there's very little money left over at the end of the month for other things. 

Add up all your spending, including current rent, food, transportation and discretionary expenses like travel, eating out and entertainment Don't forget to include debts like student loans and car payments. 

Once you know how much you have coming in and going out each month, determine a number you can afford to spend on housing. 

Generally, personal finance experts recommend aiming to spend around 28% of your monthly income on housing. 

Getting pre-approved for a loan will also help give you a sense of your housing budget. But note that just because a bank agreed to give you a loan, doesn't mean you have to spend that much. 

"In my experience, [lenders] are always trying to get [buyers] to buy a home for more than they can afford or are comfortable with," said Francine Duke, a certified financial planner in the Chicago area and former mortgage underwriter. 

Do you have a down payment? 

You don't need a 20% down payment to get a loan. But putting more down can work in your favor. It can help you get better lending rates, beat out the competition in hot housing markets and will lower the amount of interest you pay over the life of a loan. 

You can get a mortgage with as little as a 3.5% down, but anything less than 20% means paying private mortgage insurance (PMI), which will increase your monthly payment. 

Working to save for a large down payment shows financial responsibility and gets you used to living on a strict budget. 

"When you really work to save enough to get 15%-20%, it shows you have a meaningful commitment," said Bill Van Sant, certified financial planner and senior vice president at Univest Wealth Management. 

Will you have money left over after closing? 

Your bank account shouldn't be zero after closing. 

You should still have an emergency savings fund that will cover around three to six months of living expenses on hand. 

In addition to the emergency fund, Van Sant recommends having six to nine months of mortgage expenses available. 

"First-time homebuyers are typically looking at older homes because of their lower price point, and they require more work. You need that 'hanging around' money, in case the A/C or heater goes." 

Is your credit in good shape?

You want to get your credit score as high as possible when shopping for a mortgage. The higher the score, the better the lending terms and rates. 

A credit score of 750 and up is generally considered excellent and will make you the most attractive borrower. 

Have you paid down other debts?

Your debt-to-income ratio plays a major role in the health of your finances. 

You can calculate your debt-to-income ratio by adding up all your monthly debt payments and dividing it by your gross monthly income. 

The general rule of thumb is your debt should not exceed 43% of your available credit to take out a mortgage. 

Where do you see yourself in five years?

If you don't plan on staying in an area for more than a couple of years, buying a house might not make financial sense. 

The huge upfront investment including the price of the home, plus the added costs like taxes, closing costs and escrow fees, might take a while to pay off. 

"Make sure you have roots there and will be staying," said Van Sant. "Some Millennials have no problem not being tied down to an area and jump around the country ... buying might not be the best bet if you don't plan on sticking around."

Wrong!!!

I hear over and over from both Realtors & Home Owners that properties don't sell during the holidays! This couldn't be more wrong! The holidays are an excellent time to put your home on the market. Here's why:

Demand is up!

Many Sellers don't think that there are buyers looking during the holidays, so many don't put their home on the market. This reduction in inventory actually INCREASES the demand for homes since there is indeed Buyers out there. In fact, these buyers are often the most serious! These buyers are moving due to relocation, or their current home sold and need to move soon! They aren't window-shoppers!

Here is the current Cromford summary for Phoenix showing data with supply vs demand.

Learn More

Contracts In Escrow Up 19% Over Last Year
Despite Rising Prices, Affordability is Good

For Buyers:
Buyers waiting for prices to come down have been sorely disappointed so far in 2019.  The average sale price per square foot is up 6.7% since last November and the median sales price is now $283,000, up $21,000 from last November’s measure of $262,000.  

Despite rising prices, affordability has remained normal throughout the year.  One relevant factor is Private Sector Earnings in Greater Phoenix has risen 4.5% annually as interest rates have continually declined.  The median family income was measured at $72,900 last quarter and families making that income could afford 68% of what sold last quarter (according to the HOI index published by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo).  The historical norm for our market is 60-75%.  

Clearly not all buyers have parked on the fence, demand has been hovering 6-7% above normal for our area for about 4 months while supply is 44% below normal.  The only measurable relief for buyers is last month’s supply level was 47% below normal, so it’s 3% less hard to find something suitable.  

For Sellers:
The number of listings under contract may have declined 26% from its May seasonal peak, but it’s nearly 19% higher than it was this time last year.  This, combined with monthly sales up nearly 15% over last year, is a solid indicator that year-end closings will outperform last year despite a shaky start.  

Single Family permits (future supply) are up 4.6% year-to-date and multi-family permits are up 6.4%, reaching a level not seen since 2007. Single family home sales are up 5.7%, but new town home and condo sales are down a whopping 30%, which is surprising.  Resale condos and townhomes have increased in sales volume this year, so the drop in sales for new construction despite an increase in permits indicates that much of the multi-family units constructed are not for individual sale but are for rent.  

This is good news if you’re planning to sell your condo because the majority of developments are not competing for buyers.  This is not good news if you’re renting your condo nearby because that’s an increase in competing units for renters.  “Apartment style” private condo rental rates per square foot have grown less than 1% over the course of 3.5 years according to the Arizona Regional MLS records.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2019 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Dwindling options